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Introduction to Adjusted-QBS: Aaron Rodgers in 2013

Posted on March 18, 2014 at 9:20 AM
Introduction: Since the QBS measures a quarterback's statistical ranking amongst his contemporaries in areas of production, accuracy and efficency over the course of an entire season, production-related areas of QBS-measure are impacted when a player misses games. In 2013, Aaron Rodgers missed seven games, dragging down his cumulative passing yardage and touchdown pass production totals. While his accuracy and efficency rankings remained high, he recieved zero QBS points in the first two areas of measurement—leaving him with a 13.0 QBS for the season.

While his 13.0 QBS was still tied for sixth best in the NFL in 2013, he would have likely ranked higher had he played a full 16 game season.

Aaron Rodgers (2013 QBS: 13.0)

  • 5th in passing yards per-game.
  • 5th in touchdown-percentage.
  • 5th in completion-percentage.
  • 4th in adjusted net yards per attempt.

Below, you will find Rodgers' production totals adjusted at his playing-rate for a full 16 game season.


Rodgers (2013): 193 of 290 (66.6) for 2,536 yards, 17 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Rodgers (2013-adjusted): 343 of 515 (66.6) for 4,508 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

Had Rodgers played a full season, his adjusted-QBS would have risen from 13.0 to 24.0—still beneath Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. A season-total of 4,508 passing yards would have ranked fifth and 30 touchdown passes would have ranked sixth in 2013. A player's adjusted-QBS is determined by calculating their estimated passing yardage, touchdown pass and interception totals, and where said production would leave them ranked amongst production-totals actually earned by other quarterbacks in that specific season, not to what all other quarterbacks would have averaged over a 16-game season.


With adjusted-QBS applied to Rodgers' 2010 (missed one game), 2011 (missed one game) and 2013 (missed seven games) seasons, his QBS would look like this:


  • 2011: 36.0
  • 2012: 26.0
  • 2010: 26.0
  • 2013: 24.0
  • 2009: 21.0
  • 2008: 14.5 
 
  • Career total: 147.5

 

Conclusion: The time Rodgers missed in 2010, 2011 and 2013 had an impact on his QBS totals but even when using adjusted-QBS, Rodgers has only had one notably elite season in his career (2011). During his six seasons as a starter, he's certainly been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL—but he's yet to prove that he's able to regularly play at the elite level many believe he's already reached.

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